Numbers don’t lie! If that be true, we may see the winds of change in Punjab. Data available with the Election Commission reveals that a high voter turnout during assembly elections translates into change of guard. Statistics also reveal that the possibility of change is higher when the number of women voters is more than men voters.
Let’s have a look at what happened on February 4, 2017, the D-Day when Punjab went to polls. The final polling percentage recorded by the EC is 77.37%, a shade lower than the polling percentage of 78.57% registered in 2012. And yes, the women clearly outnumbered the men at the polling stations. 
Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies assigned some logic to the historical records. He was quoted as saying, “Invariably the enthusiasm at polling booths is for a change.”
Kumar acknowledged that the complexity and diversity with regard to caste and community made reliance on historical data a risky proposition. He however added, “What we observe from analyzing long-term data is that if people are satisfied with the incumbent government, they normally may not come out in large numbers.”
Increase in number of voters can be attributed to increased awareness amongst the masses and the government’s effort to ensure a free and fair poll.
At this point of time, all the stakeholders are investing time in the number crunching game.
Yes, numbers do tell a tale. However, the possibility of a surprise or an aberration can never be ruled out, especially in politics. The cat will be out of the bag on March 11, 2017. Stay tuned!
